A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
